Plans are still tentative, however it looks as though some of the characters from FraudWasteAbuse are going to Las Vegas next month. I happen to be an avid blackjack player, so I thought I’d share some the technique I use for counting cards.
Blackjack is one of the few casino games with a memory. A slot machine, for example, does not have a memory - previous plays on a slot machine do not affect future outcomes. In blackjack, on the other hand, once a card is played it cannot be played again for the remainder of the shoe/deck (whichever is being used). This adds a level of predictability to the game.
Of course, remembering every card that gets played is impossible, even on a single deck game. You could use a computer to do the tracking, but that would be cheating (and it’s illegal). Aside from it being impossible, even if you could track the cards in such a way you still couldn’t predict the order of the remaining cards.
The key is identifying the overall favorability of the remaining cards for the player vs. the casino. Generally speaking, high cards (10, Queen, King, and Ace) are good for the player and low cards (2, 3, 4, 5, and 6) are bad for the player. The reason for this is that the dealer must play until 17 is reached, but the player can stay with any value even if it’s less than 17. So if a dealer has a hand valued at 15, and there are more high valued cards than low valued in the shoe, then they are more likely to draw a 10 and bust (so any players still in the game win). On the other hand, if there are a lot of small cards the dealer is more likely to “make” the hand and not bust.
So how can you know if there are more high or low cards in the shoe? You count them. There are several counting methods, but the easiest one is called the “high low” method. The method is simple: Each card has a count value of -1, 0, or +1. For each card dealt, you add the card’s count value to a running total in your head. High cards (10, Queen, King, Ace) have a count value of -1, low cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6) have a count value of +1, and all the other cards (7, 8, 9) have a count value of 0. If you count all the cards in a deck or shoe this way, the count will be zero.
A deck with a count of zero is considered neutral; the house has a very slight advantage over the player. A deck with a negative count is bad; the house has a more definite advantage over the player. A deck with a positive count is good; the player actually has an edge over the house.
To thwart counters, casinos often use six-deck shoes. This greatly reduces the significance of the count, however it can still be counted. This is where the true count comes in. The true count can be determined by taking the current count and dividing it by the number of decks left in the shoe. For example, a count of 5 with five decks left in the shoe means that there is only a true count of one (5/5=1).
Don’t go running off to Vegas yet, though. Learning to count is only the beginning; you also need to know - and be able to appropriately modify - basic strategy.
Good luck!
